Trucking in 2025: The Road So Far

The long-haul trucking industry is entering 2025 with cautious optimism. After a turbulent few years marked by record demand, supply chain bottlenecks, and then a sharp downturn, the market is slowly beginning to stabilize. While it’s not back to the peak levels of 2021, early signs point to a rebound—especially for those who have managed to weather the downturn.

Over the past year, trucking companies and owner-operators have had to deal with falling freight rates, high operating costs, and fewer available loads. Spot market rates—those paid for one-time shipments—dropped significantly in 2023 and early 2024, forcing many small carriers to exit the industry. By late 2024, however, those rates began to flatten out, and as of early 2025, they’re showing signs of recovery. Load volumes are up, diesel prices are down compared to last year, and fewer trucks on the road mean the market is tightening again—a good sign for those still hauling.

At the same time, labor remains a major issue. Despite a slight drop in the number of open driver positions, the industry is still short tens of thousands of drivers. High turnover, an aging workforce, and difficulty attracting younger workers all contribute to the ongoing struggle to find and keep reliable drivers. Companies are responding by offering higher pay, more flexible schedules, and expanded training programs—but the path forward is far from simple.

Supply chain issues are also still affecting operations, especially at busy ports and border crossings. While the extreme port congestion of the pandemic has eased, delays still crop up, particularly when there are labor disputes or customs slowdowns. Cross-border trucking between the U.S. and Mexico has increased thanks to nearshoring trends, but outdated infrastructure and political red tape often mean long wait times at the border, further straining drivers and delivery schedules.

All in all, the trucking industry is in a period of adjustment. Challenges remain, but the worst of the downturn may be behind us. With rates showing early signs of life and some of the excess capacity shaking out, 2025 could be a turnaround year—especially for carriers and drivers who have stayed lean and resilient through the recent headwinds.